FMCG giant ITC Limited is expected to announce its third quarterly financial result (October- December period) today (Jan 29th).
As per an analysis by several beverage firms, for the current quarter, the ITC is expected to report a 3 percent rise in net profit at Rs 5,183 crore for the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. The revenue is anticipated to experience growth reaching Rs 17,425 crores, and EBITDA (Earning before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is also expected to increase by 4 percent at Rs 6,482 crores. 
According to analysts, ITC’s core business segment, cigarettes, is likely to see flat growth in this quarter compared to the same period last year. The hotel business is expected to show good performance in anticipation of weddings and festive seasons. Agribusiness is likely to see growth. However, the paperboard business is likely to show a decline and might affect the company’s overall revenue.
Expected Performance reviews by major firms
2% growth
According to brokerage firm Motilal Oswal, ITC is expected to show a 2 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in cigarettes with 5-year average volume growth in mid-single digits. “The cigarette business continues to deliver volume growth and market share gains in the softening of competition from illicit trade,” the firm said.
The firm added that they expect hotel business to outperform and expect gross margin and EBITDA to decline by 150 bps YoY and 110 bps YoY, respectively, on a high base.
Elara Securities 
The brokerage firm Elara Securities projects demand in the hotel business and anticipates 8 percent YoY growth in the hotel business. The firm stated, “ITC is set to sustain robust growth in its hotels business, capitalizing on rising average room rate (ARR) and occupancy rate. The company targets expansion to 200 hotels with 18,000 keys in the next five years via a managed portfolio which accounts for two-thirds of keys,”
Kotak Equities
As per Kotak Institutional Equities report, ITC is expected 2.0-2.5 percent YoY growth in cigarette volumes, and 10 percent YoY growth in the Agribusiness influenced by a ban on wheat and rice imports during the base quarter. Contrarily, paperboard may show a 5 percent YoY decline due to weakened demand and price corrections and EBITDA is expected to grow by 6.5 percent, in line with net revenue growth. 
“For Q3FY24E, we estimate a gross margin expansion of 230bp YoY and 50bp QoQ (ex-ITC, up 370bp YoY & 40bp QoQ), with an EBITDA margin gain of 30bp YoY but flat QoQ (ex-ITC, up 90bp YoY & down 50bp QoQ), led by benign input prices, partly offset by higher spend on advertising. We expect our FMCG universe to post EBITDA growth of 6.2% YoY (ex-ITC growth of 9.5% YoY). Barring ITC and BRIT, which could experience a decline in EBITDA margin, our coverage companies are expected to achieve margin expansion,” said the brokerage firm.
Nuvama Institutional Equities
As per the firm Nuvama Institutional Equities, ITC is expected to show growth, cigarette volume by 4.5 percent YoY, revenue by 0.5 percent YoY, EBITDA by 2.2 percent, and PAT (Profit after tax) by 1.5 percent YoY. However, other businesses like Agri-business and paperboards are expected to decline sales by 8 percent YoY.
